by Kevon Browne
St. Kitts and Nevis (WINN)—Exogenous shocks have become a regular part of navigating survival and sustainability for Small Island Developing States like St. Kitts and Nevis.
Unexpected external events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, wars, or sudden policy shifts, occur outside an economic system or industry and cause dramatic, often negative, impacts worldwide.
The latest exogenous shock to have a global impact has been the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Premier of Nevis, Hon. Mark Brantley, did not shy away from the impact being felt.
“Exogenous shocks will impact Nevis’ economy, as they will impact every economy around the world. I’m already hearing that in some countries they’re declaring fuel and energy emergencies in places like the Philippines, places like those. We are grateful that we’re still getting supplies of fuel for our vehicles and for our generating sets at NEVLEC. But the truth is that that is going to come at a higher cost. And I believe that, as I’ve said repeatedly, these are the situations where we of this world must understand that, notwithstanding that we’re miles away from conflict, notwithstanding that we have no say in some of these conflicts, we still pay a price. And that that is simply the nature of the world. When these wars would have wrecked the economies in these small island developing states, there’s nobody who’s saying here’s a check to help you. Here’s some assistance to cushion the impact. They’re saying to small islands like ours, already struggling to do the necessary in terms of development, that you must now find the resources to offer relief to your people, caused not by any decision that Mark Brantley took, but by the foolish decisions that are being taken elsewhere.”
Brantley expressed that energy sovereignty through the geothermal project is the pathway for the Federation to mitigate what appears to be an ongoing trend of geopolitical moves that cause constant shifts in the global economy.
“I empathise with the ferry operators, as I empathise with any small business owner at this point, because let’s face it, we are facing increased costs due to this war in Iran and the surrounding conflict. And as a result, we can’t demand that small businesses carry the burden on their own. And one of the ways that this is done in the private sector is to pass on that increased cost to the public, to the consumer. So I haven’t had a discussion with them as yet, but I anticipate, through NASPA, the Nevis Air and Seaports Authority, that we can engage with the ferry operators to find out what are the parameters and whether, for example, these increases are temporary. That’s an important question, because a lot of times we see in Nevis businesses use global situations conditions to increase prices. But once those global situations ameliorate themselves, the price doesn’t ameliorate itself. So once they add on that $10, that $10 stays regardless. So we would need to also discuss that. Is it a temporary situation?”
Governor of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB), Timothy Antoine, had a similar sentiment during the recently concluded 10th Annual Growth and Resilience Dialogue, where he suggested that the path forward for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, to stand and strive despite exogenous shocks, is ‘The Big Push’ agenda, where acceleration is required to ensure the region’s economic future.
“In our currency union, growth is projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027. Colleagues, that is not transformation. That is maintenance. And maintenance will not secure our future. And that is precisely why the big push is not optional. It is imperative. The big push sets an ambition of 7% annual growth over the next decade. But we must confront a quieter challenge. Our populations are not growing. They are shrinking. This means fewer workers, low output, and greater pressure on those of us who remain. And since we cannot grow by sheer numbers, we must grow by productivity.”
The impact is already hitting small businesses and, as such, the pockets of the everyday man, as ferry operators have indicated they will increase fares due to rising fuel costs.
“And so, unfortunately, that is the world in which we live, and we just have to do the best that we can. But I do anticipate that there will be shocks. And that is why I have been so passionate about this renewable energy project, the geothermal project, because I think that’s the only way. If we grow more of our own food, if we generate more of our own energy, that we will be able to deal with these shocks and insulate our people from them. A geothermal contract, I’m told, has been signed. I believe there’s an official ceremony that is being anticipated, but the actual documentation is in place. Icelandic Drilling is the company that has been selected, and I think that has been signed between Icelandic Drilling and Nevlec to proceed with the project.”
Regarding the geothermal project, the Premier has provided an update on its status.
“There’s some surrounding work to be done, some lands to be bought, purchased in the area, and we are working on all that. We’re in the process of setting up a geothermal unit so that we will have a team that is dedicated 100% to that, because currently, what has been happening is that the people at Nevlec, who have their Nevlec work to do, have also been involved with geothermal. I think I can say that… Mr Albert Gordon, who is the general manager at NEVLEC, has left us, but not left us. So he has left physically, but we have retained his services to assist us continue now, but exclusively on the geothermal side of things. He has been instrumental, and I want to pay homage and respect to him because he has really been instrumental in getting us this far. The knowledge that he has brought, the hard work that he has brought, has been incredibly helpful to getting us this far in this process.”
On the geothermal facility, the Premier said that the request for proposals should be going out.
“The plant construction, we expect that we will have a request for proposals to go out. I’m not sure where that is, but last I was told that was being finalised. So the idea is that, as we start with the drilling, we have that other process working in parallel. The sense was that that process should be the easier part of the process, because the riskier part is the drilling. So that’s where we’re having so much difficulty getting funding for the drilling. But once the drilling is done and the resource is there, then the rest becomes far easier. That’s where we anticipate that the private sector will come on board.” – Nevis Prmeir, Hon. Mark Brantly, during his April 27, 2026, press conference.
